An interim agreement between Iran and Oman aimed at restoring normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has a “50-50” chance of being reached on Friday, according to a senior Gulf official involved in the ongoing negotiations.

According to a report by CNN, the official said Iran’s negotiating team does not include representatives from the country’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). However, the IRGC’s approval is considered essential for implementing the terms of any interim agreement.

The official noted that while the talks have made progress, it is still too early to be certain that a final agreement will be reached.

Trump’s Optimism

US President Donald Trump told reporters that American officials are holding “very good discussions” with Iranian representatives.

He said the negotiations were moving in a positive direction and that an agreement could be reached soon. At the same time, Trump warned that if Iran backed away from a deal again, the United States would take “very tough measures.”

He also suggested that an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz issue could be finalized as early as Friday.

Iran’s Position

Iran, however, has consistently denied reports of direct peace talks with the United States.

Tehran maintains that its officials are only engaged in discussions with Oman, acting as a mediator, regarding the restoration of normal maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. It insists that no direct negotiations with Washington are currently taking place.

Diplomatic sources, however, believe that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could pave the way for broader diplomatic engagement between Iran and the United States.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically important energy shipping routes. A significant share of globally traded crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through the narrow waterway.

Recent tensions have disrupted shipping in the strait, contributing to volatility in global energy markets. Oil prices have risen, while spot LNG prices in Asia have climbed to their highest levels in years.

Analysts say a successful agreement between Iran and Oman could help restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over global energy supplies and potentially stabilizing international oil and gas prices.

However, they caution that without the approval of the IRGC, implementing any interim agreement could prove difficult. As a result, governments and market observers continue to monitor the negotiations closely despite the reported progress.

Source: CNN