Saudi Arabia is preparing for a major military operation against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, with Riyadh considering multiple plans to regain control of the strategically important Bab al-Mandab Strait along the Red Sea, Reuters reported.

Citing regional and Western officials, Reuters said the operation could begin within the next few weeks. Saudi-backed local forces in Yemen are expected to conduct the main ground offensive, supported by Saudi airstrikes.

Saudi allies, however, are not expected to participate directly in combat operations, officials familiar with the plans said. Speaking on condition of anonymity, they said the United States was already providing intelligence support for Saudi military operations in Yemen. Several regional and European countries were also providing mainly defensive military assistance to Riyadh.

Two Possible Plans

Gulf and Yemeni officials said Saudi authorities were considering two possible plans for the operation.

Under the first option, a limited offensive would be launched around the Bab al-Mandab Strait and surrounding areas. The second plan is broader and involves coordinated attacks in Yemen’s Al Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al Jawf provinces at the same time.

More than 100,000 Yemeni fighters could potentially be deployed depending on the scale of the operation, officials familiar with the plans said.

The exact timing remains uncertain. Six people familiar with the plans gave possible timelines ranging from within a week to after the US midterm elections in early November.

Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthi group and the US military were contacted for comment but did not immediately respond, Reuters reported.

Why the Bab al-Mandab Strait Matters

The Bab al-Mandab Strait is the southern entrance to the Red Sea and one of the key maritime routes connecting Europe and Asia. Its strategic importance for international trade has increased amid the ongoing regional conflict.

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed due to the conflict involving Iran, the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab have become increasingly important routes for international shipping.

The Houthis’ recent advance along the coast and their takeover of the Bab al-Mandab area have raised concerns in Saudi Arabia. According to officials familiar with the plans, one of the main objectives of a possible Saudi operation would be to halt the Houthi advance and regain control of the strait.

A Western diplomat and a Gulf official said Riyadh believes renewed peace talks with the Houthis would be difficult while the group controls Bab al-Mandab. Their control of the strait gives the Houthis significant strategic leverage and international influence, the officials said.

Riyadh Does Not Want a Repeat of the 2015 War

Saudi Arabia became directly involved in Yemen’s civil war in 2015, leading an Arab coalition in support of the internationally recognised Yemeni government after the Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa.

A ceasefire between the two sides took effect in 2022 and largely held for some time. However, the situation deteriorated this year after the conflict involving Iran spread into Yemen. The Houthis began launching missiles and drones at Saudi ships and oil infrastructure.

Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador and Saudi Arabia expert, said the potential Saudi operation could be more limited than the campaign launched in 2015. Rather than attempting to completely defeat the Houthis, Riyadh may focus on restoring the situation that existed before the group took control of the coastal area around Bab al-Mandab.

Roles of the US, Turkey and Pakistan

The United States is Saudi Arabia’s most powerful ally. A Western diplomat said Washington was providing military advisers and intelligence related to target identification to support Saudi air operations.

However, the scope of US assistance could remain limited. In an earlier report, Reuters said Saudi de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had sought direct military assistance, including airstrikes, but US President Donald Trump had not agreed to the request.

Meanwhile, Turkey and Pakistan, which signed a joint defence agreement with Saudi Arabia last month, are also supplying military equipment to Riyadh, according to Pakistani and regional officials.

A Pakistani government official said Pakistan had sent air defence systems, light artillery, drones and counter-drone equipment to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government’s port of Aden last month in four cargo aircraft.

According to another Pakistani official, a Gulf official and a Western diplomat, Pakistani military advisers are also in Yemen with Saudi officials, assisting local Yemeni forces. Turkish-made drones previously purchased by Saudi Arabia have also been deployed in Yemeni airspace, they said.

Pakistan Will Not Send Troops to Yemen

One of Saudi Arabia’s major concerns over a new operation is how to protect its oil facilities and critical infrastructure from Houthi drone and missile attacks.

Regional officials said Riyadh had sought additional defensive systems from several allies.

A Pakistani official said Pakistan had deployed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops to protect Saudi Arabia’s land border and counter drone and missile threats. The troops have been sent to Saudi Arabia in several phases since last year, with additional deployments made following the recent escalation.

However, Islamabad has made no decision to send Pakistani troops to Yemen for direct combat operations, the official said.

Pakistan’s and Turkey’s defence ministries were contacted for comment on their military assistance but did not immediately respond.

Meanwhile, France has announced defensive measures and the deployment of troops to protect Yanbu, a Red Sea port city.

How Prepared Are the Anti-Houthi Yemeni Forces?

For a potential ground offensive, Saudi Arabia would have to rely on several fragmented and poorly coordinated armed groups in Yemen. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have provided weapons and training to some of these groups at various stages of Yemen’s civil war.

Questions remain, however, over whether these forces are adequately prepared for a prolonged and large-scale military campaign.

Yemen analyst Mohammed al-Basha said many anti-Houthi forces were still not sufficiently organised or prepared for a sustained offensive capable of pushing back the well-organised Houthi forces. The local forces are also facing significant pressure as the Houthis increase pressure on multiple fronts, he said.

Divisions among Yemen’s anti-Houthi forces deepened further last winter. Fighting broke out between Saudi-backed forces and UAE-backed southern fighters after the latter seized several areas in the east and announced plans to establish a separate state. The southern forces were defeated after several rounds of fighting.

Success Will Depend on Local Forces

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst known to be close to the country’s policymaking circles, warned that the outcome of any potential operation against the Houthis would depend heavily on the capabilities of Yemen’s ground forces.

He said their priority had previously been to defend their positions and maintain stability across different fronts. They are now preparing to move towards offensive operations.

According to Shihabi, the effectiveness of local forces will be a major factor in determining the outcome of any Saudi campaign against the Houthis.

Amid the ongoing conflict involving Iran and Israel, the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and growing risks to commercial shipping in the Red Sea, a potential Saudi operation could further widen the conflict in the Middle East.

With Hezbollah’s military capabilities weakened in Lebanon in recent years, the Houthis have become an increasingly important ally of Iran in the region. A new Saudi-led operation against the Houthis could therefore create another major flashpoint in the region’s ongoing conflicts.

Source: Reuters